Changing Religious Affiliation Among Older Australians: Estimates and Projections to Mid-century

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to investigate shifting religious affiliation of the older Australian population to mid-century. Projections were produced with a cohort-component model classified by both country/region of birth and religious affiliation and divided by sex and five-year age groups. By mid-century, we project a rapid increase in the percentage of people reporting ‘No religion’ (+ 82%, + 8.65 million), alongside a decrease in Christian religions (from 55% to 30% of the population) and increases in Hinduism (169%, +1.2 million), Islam (106%, +913k), and Buddhism (40%, +255k). Natural change, net religious movement, and net overseas migration play differing roles across each of the..